There have been a thousand studies on the question of ‘why projects fail’, but many times it begins before the project is even started. And it begins with a simple question from the person who wants to project done to the person who is going to do the project – ‘rough guess, what is this going to take?’.Â
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Those words are the beginning of the end for many projects. The idea is to give a rough guess of what it is going to take to do the project, just something that will tell the requestor if this is something they want to proceed with or not.Â
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The problem is, the estimate given is always based on incomplete or inaccurate information and is always, always wrong.Â
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You see, the thing with people is that no matter what their intent when they ask that question, what they are told becomes part ‘truth’ and so if you say a ‘couple of weeks’, it becomes ‘two weeks’ which becomes ‘two weeks from the moment you said that’ which then becomes hopelessly too short to ever be realistic.Â
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The end result is that no matter how the project turns out, no body is satisfied. The requestor feels like you were not being honest with them, all they wanted was a rough guess and no rough guess worth a tuddle’s hoot could have been as far off as your was, and the doer is annoyed because it would have been nice to know up front that when we talked about creating a report that we were really talking about creating a report from data on another system and then emailing the report to them without any specialty software to do so.Â
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Every project, whether it is waterfall, agile, or some mutant version of both must start with a solid understanding of what needs to be done so that an estimate of what it will take to do it can be developed.  And a solid understanding requires time to interrogate users about what they want and dig to the bottom of the pile. Â
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There is no such thing as a rough estimate. The world is too complicated. And the sooner people who want things done realize that there is no free lunch, no easy way to eyeball a project, the better off we will be.Â
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Project Management – it is a science, not a guess.Â