I do not believe in revolutionary change.  At least not for IT.  I don’t believe that something is going to jump up and sweep across the land like a blazing wildfire, remaking the landscape as it goes.  But I do believe there are forces at work today, forces that may take years and which some of us may not even be aware of now, that are going to radically alter much that we take for granted in the ‘i’ world.   

What got me thinking about this was a news story earlier this week about an address (http://www.crn.com/networking/208700209 ) by Gartner VP of Research, Robert Anderson, at the Everything Channel’s and Vision Events Midsize Enterprise Summit Europe (and yes, that’s what they called it) in Barcelona.  In this address, he challenged an audience of mid-size CIO’s (plus a few tall CIO’s who stooped over just a bit to get in) to change in the face of new forces that were set to change the IT world as we know it.   Although he did not give a bullet point list, most of the forces he described dealt with communications issues (as in social networking adapted to the business environment), the growing importance of the web (no, sir, didn’t see that one coming), and dealing with a user base that was often more technologically savvy than the IT group (or who at least think they are).

Now I’m not going to debate the merits of his speech, but I will say that I agree that a number of societal and technical forces are already at work and which in the next decade or so will have a major impact on the IT landscape that we know and love. And I agree that being in a medium sized (or small) company isn’t going to insulate you from them.  Specifically, I see the following changes headed our way. 

End of ‘Sitting on a Release’

You know what annoys me?  The ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ mentality.  The only thing I hate more is the smarty pants ‘if it ain’t broke, break it’ philosophy, but that’s another column. 

I have never understood why many of us in the ‘i’ world sit on a release for 8 or 10 years simply because it works.  Like the task of moving to a new release is so dangerous and fraught with potholes that only the most daring or foolhardy would consider making the leap?   Puh-leeze!  Yes, the old release works.  Yipee snoodle.  What you need to remember is so does the new release.  In fact, it works better; provides more power and flexibility, and gives you the tools to do truly ‘modern’ computing. 

The truth is, each new release of IBM i contains tons of very important enhancements, the kinds of enhancements that let us do more than just write RPG programs, the kinds of enhancements that let us marry the reliability and cost effectiveness of the ‘i’ with the ‘gee-whiz’ world of web 2.0 yada, yada, yada.   And the folks who stay more or less current (as opposed to more or less at a standstill) will be the ones who can leverage these technologies and construct systems that are a strategic plus for their business. 

And what about the folks who hang back?  Well, they will all end up working in windows shops.  Why?  Basic human nature and the tilt of business politics.  The ones who stay on 5.2 when 7.3 is out will have abrogated their technical leadership, they will have shown that they are out of touch with where IT is going because even users can tell if you are close to the cutting edge or working with a framework that is 20 years old.  And who will step in to take over that leadership?   The finance group, that’s who, without a doubt the most powerful and listened to group in 95% of the businesses today.  And what will finance recommend?  Why windows, of course.  And why is that?  Yes, because they are familiar with it, but in the larger picture it will be because the IT group has failed to show that the ‘i; is a modern operating system.  How can it be if you are on the same release you were 8 years ago and standardized on a programming language developed almost 40 years ago?   And we as a company need to be on a modern operating system.  And here comes the next release of Windows, just in time to be on the fore front. 

Hate to break it to you, but platform decisions are not made based on facts.  They are made based on how we feel about the facts, and if the IT group hasn’t built a case for needing to continually modernize the computer infrastructure, the finance group will, and windows will be their choice 90% of the time.   Every single time you fail to move up to the new release of IBM i, you help prove that the ‘i’ is just a tired, old legacy system that is no longer relevant in this age of Web 2.0. 

End of ‘Single Language Programmers’

It was great while it lasted, and it lasted quite some time, but the era of a programmer knowing and using just one language is over.   Starting with the demise of Assembler back in the 70’s you could have a nice career for yourself just knowing COBOL or RPG.  But wave bye bye now because those days are gone. 

Today’s programmers (yes, today, because this is on us right now) will be required to know two types of languages.  The first will be a business logic language, like RPG – only the RPG that will matter is not RPGIII or even RPGIV but RPG ILE and /Free.  We are going to move to Model-View-Controller program structures where using sub-procedures and service programs will be common place.  Skeptical about that?  I used to be but the simple fact is that the skills in ILE and /Free are just what you need to deal with the web and all that jazz.    

The second language family will be the web languages (HTML, CSS, SQL, PHP, Javascript, etc.).  I love green screen and I think (hope) it will always have it’s place, but the web is where it’s at, and is already playing an increasing role in the business system of every company.  Accessing the web from the classic business functions, or picking up or displaying data on the web will become increasingly important.    

‘Business Networking’

Mr. Anderson spent quite a bit of time in his address on the importance of networking ala MySpace, etc.  His point is that as workers who have grown up with social networking sites enter the work force they are going to demand the kinds of facilities that they were accustomed to on those sites. 

Before you dismiss this with a ‘well they can just facebook on their own time’, let’s think for a minute about what these sites provide.  In addition to being able to post pictures of your dog chasing a balloon with the word ‘cat’ on it and being able to show a video of you learning to water ski while your friends drink a case of beer, networking sites have a serious side that is sometime missed.  In essence, these sites are all about information, and sharing that information among a large group of people where everyone is free to just throw stuff out there with very few limits.  And this describes perfectly the goals of collaborative development, a process whereby a group of people in a company can work together on a common project regardless of their location. 

This is coming and to meet this need companies are going to have to develop (or subscribe to) their own ‘networking sites’ where the emphasis is on collaboration and the exchange of info.  Email isn’t going to do it, too hard to find the one email (and it’s attachment) that you are looking for in the flood of messages we wade through each day.  What will be needed are the same tools that many of us are getting used to on the web; knowledge bases, wiki’s, collaboration software, posting and markup tools, and whatever else is required to let different people at different sites share and learn from each other. 

Telecommuting

I don’t know where this summer’s gas prices are going to go.  Will they drop in the fall to the good old $3 a gallon level?  Or will this country be forced to embark on an energy saving program that will make the turning down of thermostats in the Carter administration look feeble?   With continued social pressure for people to move to ever more remote suburbs (due to housing costs or in search of good schools) will we get to the point where people can’t afford to commute?  Will we get to the point where companies actively encourage people to work from home because it reduces the company’s investment in facilities and utilities?  I think it’s a strong possibility and I think the number of people who wish they could telecommute is going to sky rocket in the coming years.    

Now it’s not for everyone, but then neither is sitting in a 4 foot square cubicle either.  And there are some bosses who do not trust anyone they can’t see, although I think you can make a solid argument for the fact that anyone whose idea of collaboration mimics that of incarceration shouldn’t be managing any one.  Will some people take advantage of the fact that nobody can see what they are doing?  Sure, just like today there are some people who can be in an office for eight full hours and accomplish absolutely nothing. 

In the end, the quality and quantity of your work will indicate if you are taking advantage of somebody not staring over your shoulder.  I have worked at home extensively over the past few years and it is far more efficient than being in an office.  All you need is a good broadband line and a comfortable place to set up shop.  And the payoff is people who are more productive, happier, and feel that work is more a part of their normal life. 

Broader Definition  / Higher Level of Professionalism

I certainly don’t want to give the impression that I think System i folks are not professional.  They are, and as a group they show a passionate dedication to their work.   But I think that most System i people think of themselves as just that,  System i professionals, not IT professionals, and they are both defined and circumscribed by that role.  And that has, to some extent, held them back in terms of how they think about new ideas and trends.  ‘Oh, that’s really not germane to the 400 world’ or ‘that’s not how we do it on the System i’. 

I think that as we open things up, as new languages become common place, and we connect to new technologies, some of that thinking will disappear.  At least I hope so.  System i professionals need to feel they are a part of the larger IT fabric.  They need to open themselves up and embrace new ideas and technologies.  They need to see that doing things the way we have always done them is not enough.    

And that’s about it.  There are lots of other things that I think will happen, including Tila Tequila, A Shot at Love XXIII, but some of them are just too painful to think about without a large glass of Madeira.  But how about you?  Am I catching the wave of future  here or missing the point entirely?  Let me know what you think.  It can be anonymous and it’s certainly painless to comment.  What do you see coming down the road at you?  What do you wish would happen? 

Oh, and you can feel free to share these thoughts with Gartner too if you want.  I mean they haven’t asked but you know, who knows, right? 

OK, I’ll admit it.  I’m a bit grouchy tonight. 

Oh, I know what you’re thinking.  Dave, you’re so funny, so friendly, how could you possibly be grumpy?  Truth is, I’m not really all that funny and friendly.  I’m cynical and sarcastic.  Passes for humor much of the time, but the mental state that produces it is quite a bit different.  My basic problem is a common one, and in this day and age when everyone is open and honest about their disabilities I might as well just come out with it – my name is Dave Shirey and I’m a Grouch.  Not all the time, of course.  Generally it’s a morning problem and after I have a cup of tea and yell at someone I usually settle right down.

Like most afflictions, it’s hard to pin point exactly what triggered my attack tonight but I think it was reading yet another magazine article on application modernization.  Good article really, written by two people who are true experts and whom I do respect but golly wonkers Bobbie Jean, how many of those articles can you read before you go off the deep end.   It’s like when you are watching Tila Tequila, A Shot at Love II and somebody says for the umpteenth time ‘I just want her to know that I’m here just for her’.  Idiots.  The only reason you are there is to make a damn fool of yourself and the only reason she is there is to help you so just get on with it and shut up about it anyway.  Really, how dumb can people be?  When it’s all said and done you’re going to end up without a key and a stupid looking expression of betrayal or loss on your face (‘I thought we were so close’) or else you’re going to be the last one with a key and you’ll get to watch while the VH1 limousine whisks her away.  Wise up, people!  

OK, so what was I talking about anyway.  Oh, yeah, application modernization.  It was a typical article, outlining all of the things you need to consider if you are doing an app mod project but like most articles about ‘app mod’ it makes it look like all you have to do to modernize is put in some GUI screens.  For the moment let me bypass entirely the fact that going GUI really has very little to do with true application modernization.  If it does, then the next time my neighbor’s daughter comes over to visit him I am going to sneak over, snap the Mercedes emblem off her hood and glue it on my Honda Civic.  Dude, I’m gonna have me a phat ride, don’t you know. 

For my money real application modernization is the process of redesigning your apps so that they are more modular, flexible, and powerful than before.  The applications should do more and allow you to do it easier (fewer keystrokes or faster keystrokes, not just different kinds of keystrokes).   There should be more breadth and more power, not just a different look.  But just try selling that to somebody today.  They look at you with a blank expression and finally say ‘Yeah, I get it.’ And then after a moment add ‘so where does the GUI screen go?’.    Arrrrgggghhhhhh!!!!!   No key for you!!!

I’m not the sort to complain or carry on and I wish that I could pretend for just a moment (which I can’t) that GUI is a big part of application modernization (which it isn’t) and should be your first priority (don’t even get me started).  But ‘I can only stands so much and then I can’t stands no more’ and so let me walk you through this so I can get over it and on with my evening.    

First thing, you don’t have to do GUI.  Yes, I know that all the other kids are talking about it but do I even need to ask you what you would do if they all jumped off a bridge?  IT departments should only do two things; stuff that improves the overall system integrity, and stuff that has a real dollar impact on the bottom line.  Going GUI does neither.  Granted, it makes some people feel good but what are we running here, a business or a coffee house?   If you don’t need to do GUI to meet a particular, very specific and quantifiable user need – don’t.  Show some backbone will you,  Do something useful with your time.  Like getting the holes in your security policy nailed down. 

Second thing, unfortunately, life is a bitch, and you may be in a position where all the C-boys and C-girls are sort of forcing you to do GUI.  They can be pretty persuasive and all and you may find that your choice boils down to either looking for a new job or deciding that going GUI would be pretty swell.  After all, it’s their money and as long as it’s their idea and they can’t blame you when the bills begin to mount up, who cares. 

And that brings us to the third thing – what technology will you use to go GUI.  More than anything, this drives me nuts; the endless round about of should you choose Java or .NET or PHP or FORTRAN or Ruby on Roadblocks, yada, yada, yada.   When you are faced with this question there’s only one thing you really need to remember – it really doesn’t matter which tool you pick.  Fact is they all have their pro’s and con’s.  Those that handle strings well don’t play nice with I/O and vice versa.  Bottom line – they all will work for you and the most important thing is to choose a tool with a minimal learning curve.  You can do this by considering what other language expertise you already have in house (if you have someone on board who is already a .NET guru or a PHP heavy that means a lot).  Or hire someone you know you can get along with and go with the technology they know.  That’s a hell of a lot more important than how the language handles strings.  Or pick one where you know there are a lot of people in your geographic location who have experience with it.  The choice is not the make it or break it part of this project.   It’s a language, not a life style choice!  Just pick one and move on.   

And what is important?  Well, first, don’t do GUI unless you are getting something solid out of it.  Have I mentioned that before?  We waste far too much time and effort doing things that don’t give us much of a payback.  A lot of people would be better off just sitting at their desks doing nothing.  And second, if you do have to do application modernization try to actually do some modernizing while you are at it.  What can be done to make the app more useful to the users?  What can you do to make it more proactive?  Does the user really need anything different from this function or do they just want to spend their day opening combo boxes?   What can you do to provide more intelligence and usefulness to the function?  Contrary to popular belief, substance is more important than appearances.

Like I said, we waste a ton of time doing things that aren’t worth doing.  True, it keeps us busy and off the streets, but does it really help our businesses?  Does it really help the image of IT?  Does it really show the power and beauty of the Power i?  Most of the time no.  But that’s people.  God, they’re annoying.  Hey, anybody know where I can get a cup of tea?   Just a lousy cup of tea.  Maybe I should watch some TV.  Oh great, the only thing that seems to be on is Brett Michaels and Rock of Love.  Perfect. Today just keeps getting better and better.