I do not believe in revolutionary change.  At least not for IT.  I don’t believe that something is going to jump up and sweep across the land like a blazing wildfire, remaking the landscape as it goes.  But I do believe there are forces at work today, forces that may take years and which some of us may not even be aware of now, that are going to radically alter much that we take for granted in the ‘i’ world.   

What got me thinking about this was a news story earlier this week about an address (http://www.crn.com/networking/208700209 ) by Gartner VP of Research, Robert Anderson, at the Everything Channel’s and Vision Events Midsize Enterprise Summit Europe (and yes, that’s what they called it) in Barcelona.  In this address, he challenged an audience of mid-size CIO’s (plus a few tall CIO’s who stooped over just a bit to get in) to change in the face of new forces that were set to change the IT world as we know it.   Although he did not give a bullet point list, most of the forces he described dealt with communications issues (as in social networking adapted to the business environment), the growing importance of the web (no, sir, didn’t see that one coming), and dealing with a user base that was often more technologically savvy than the IT group (or who at least think they are).

Now I’m not going to debate the merits of his speech, but I will say that I agree that a number of societal and technical forces are already at work and which in the next decade or so will have a major impact on the IT landscape that we know and love. And I agree that being in a medium sized (or small) company isn’t going to insulate you from them.  Specifically, I see the following changes headed our way. 

End of ‘Sitting on a Release’

You know what annoys me?  The ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ mentality.  The only thing I hate more is the smarty pants ‘if it ain’t broke, break it’ philosophy, but that’s another column. 

 

I have never understood why many of us in the ‘i’ world sit on a release for 8 or 10 years simply because it works.  Like the task of moving to a new release is so dangerous and fraught with potholes that only the most daring or foolhardy would consider making the leap?   Puh-leeze!  Yes, the old release works.  Yipee snoodle.  What you need to remember is so does the new release.  In fact, it works better; provides more power and flexibility, and gives you the tools to do truly ‘modern’ computing. 

The truth is, each new release of IBM i contains tons of very important enhancements, the kinds of enhancements that let us do more than just write RPG programs, the kinds of enhancements that let us marry the reliability and cost effectiveness of the ‘i’ with the ‘gee-whiz’ world of web 2.0 yada, yada, yada.   And the folks who stay more or less current (as opposed to more or less at a standstill) will be the ones who can leverage these technologies and construct systems that are a strategic plus for their business. 

And what about the folks who hang back?  Well, they will all end up working in windows shops.  Why?  Basic human nature and the tilt of business politics.  The ones who stay on 5.2 when 7.3 is out will have abrogated their technical leadership, they will have shown that they are out of touch with where IT is going because even users can tell if you are close to the cutting edge or working with a framework that is 20 years old.  And who will step in to take over that leadership?   The finance group, that’s who, without a doubt the most powerful and listened to group in 95% of the businesses today.  And what will finance recommend?  Why windows, of course.  And why is that?  Yes, because they are familiar with it, but in the larger picture it will be because the IT group has failed to show that the ‘i; is a modern operating system.  How can it be if you are on the same release you were 8 years ago and standardized on a programming language developed almost 40 years ago?   And we as a company need to be on a modern operating system.  And here comes the next release of Windows, just in time to be on the fore front. 

Hate to break it to you, but platform decisions are not made based on facts.  They are made based on how we feel about the facts, and if the IT group hasn’t built a case for needing to continually modernize the computer infrastructure, the finance group will, and windows will be their choice 90% of the time.   Every single time you fail to move up to the new release of IBM i, you help prove that the ‘i’ is just a tired, old legacy system that is no longer relevant in this age of Web 2.0. 

End of ‘Single Language Programmers’

It was great while it lasted, and it lasted quite some time, but the era of a programmer knowing and using just one language is over.   Starting with the demise of Assembler back in the 70’s you could have a nice career for yourself just knowing COBOL or RPG.  But wave bye bye now because those days are gone. 

Today’s programmers (yes, today, because this is on us right now) will be required to know two types of languages.  The first will be a business logic language, like RPG – only the RPG that will matter is not RPGIII or even RPGIV but RPG ILE and /Free.  We are going to move to Model-View-Controller program structures where using sub-procedures and service programs will be common place.  Skeptical about that?  I used to be but the simple fact is that the skills in ILE and /Free are just what you need to deal with the web and all that jazz.    

The second language family will be the web languages (HTML, CSS, SQL, PHP, Javascript, etc.).  I love green screen and I think (hope) it will always have it’s place, but the web is where it’s at, and is already playing an increasing role in the business system of every company.  Accessing the web from the classic business functions, or picking up or displaying data on the web will become increasingly important.    

‘Business Networking’

Mr. Anderson spent quite a bit of time in his address on the importance of networking ala MySpace, etc.  His point is that as workers who have grown up with social networking sites enter the work force they are going to demand the kinds of facilities that they were accustomed to on those sites. 

Before you dismiss this with a ‘well they can just facebook on their own time’, let’s think for a minute about what these sites provide.  In addition to being able to post pictures of your dog chasing a balloon with the word ‘cat’ on it and being able to show a video of you learning to water ski while your friends drink a case of beer, networking sites have a serious side that is sometime missed.  In essence, these sites are all about information, and sharing that information among a large group of people where everyone is free to just throw stuff out there with very few limits.  And this describes perfectly the goals of collaborative development, a process whereby a group of people in a company can work together on a common project regardless of their location. 

This is coming and to meet this need companies are going to have to develop (or subscribe to) their own ‘networking sites’ where the emphasis is on collaboration and the exchange of info.  Email isn’t going to do it, too hard to find the one email (and it’s attachment) that you are looking for in the flood of messages we wade through each day.  What will be needed are the same tools that many of us are getting used to on the web; knowledge bases, wiki’s, collaboration software, posting and markup tools, and whatever else is required to let different people at different sites share and learn from each other. 

Telecommuting

I don’t know where this summer’s gas prices are going to go.  Will they drop in the fall to the good old $3 a gallon level?  Or will this country be forced to embark on an energy saving program that will make the turning down of thermostats in the Carter administration look feeble?   With continued social pressure for people to move to ever more remote suburbs (due to housing costs or in search of good schools) will we get to the point where people can’t afford to commute?  Will we get to the point where companies actively encourage people to work from home because it reduces the company’s investment in facilities and utilities?  I think it’s a strong possibility and I think the number of people who wish they could telecommute is going to sky rocket in the coming years.    

Now it’s not for everyone, but then neither is sitting in a 4 foot square cubicle either.  And there are some bosses who do not trust anyone they can’t see, although I think you can make a solid argument for the fact that anyone whose idea of collaboration mimics that of incarceration shouldn’t be managing any one.  Will some people take advantage of the fact that nobody can see what they are doing?  Sure, just like today there are some people who can be in an office for eight full hours and accomplish absolutely nothing. 

In the end, the quality and quantity of your work will indicate if you are taking advantage of somebody not staring over your shoulder.  I have worked at home extensively over the past few years and it is far more efficient than being in an office.  All you need is a good broadband line and a comfortable place to set up shop.  And the payoff is people who are more productive, happier, and feel that work is more a part of their normal life. 

Broader Definition  / Higher Level of Professionalism

I certainly don’t want to give the impression that I think System i folks are not professional.  They are, and as a group they show a passionate dedication to their work.   But I think that most System i people think of themselves as just that,  System i professionals, not IT professionals, and they are both defined and circumscribed by that role.  And that has, to some extent, held them back in terms of how they think about new ideas and trends.  ‘Oh, that’s really not germane to the 400 world’ or ‘that’s not how we do it on the System i’. 

I think that as we open things up, as new languages become common place, and we connect to new technologies, some of that thinking will disappear.  At least I hope so.  System i professionals need to feel they are a part of the larger IT fabric.  They need to open themselves up and embrace new ideas and technologies.  They need to see that doing things the way we have always done them is not enough.    

And that’s about it.  There are lots of other things that I think will happen, including Tila Tequila, A Shot at Love XXIII, but some of them are just too painful to think about without a large glass of Madeira.  But how about you?  Am I catching the wave of future  here or missing the point entirely?  Let me know what you think.  It can be anonymous and it’s certainly painless to comment.  What do you see coming down the road at you?  What do you wish would happen? 

Oh, and you can feel free to share these thoughts with Gartner too if you want.  I mean they haven’t asked but you know, who knows, right?Â